China’s premier Li Keqiang in Pakistan
SOURCE: Asia Times Online
Thursday, May 23, 2013
By SYED FAZL-E-HAIDER

Pakistan and China on Wednesday agreed to jointly work on an economic corridor for enhanced connectivity, with the two countries signing a series of agreements related to energy, technology and space during the first visit to Pakistan by China’s premier Li Keqiang since he took office in March.

Even so, local critics claimed Pakistan was of little importance to Beijing compared with India, which Li visited for three days immediately before going to Islamabad. He then flies on to Switzerland and Germany.

Li was given the equivalent of the red-carpet treatment in the air as well as on the ground, with a squad of six JF-17 fighter jets, jointly produced by Pakistan and China, escorting his plane the moment it entered Pakistani air space. Li’s two-day visit has come at a time when Pakistan is set to undergo a political transition after a May 11 election from one civilian government to another, the first such handover in the country’s troubled political history.

The two countries signed 11 deals in Islamabad to strengthen and diversify cooperation in economy, science and technology, space and upper atmosphere communication and boundary management. The memoranda of understanding signed by the countries included ones on maritime cooperation, cooperation for long-term plan on China-Pakistan economic corridor and cooperation in the field of marine science and technology.

“We hope to create a giant economic corridor that would not only enhance China’s strategic significance but would also help in restoring peace and stability to Asia,” Li told a joint news conference with outgoing President Asif Ali Zardari in Islamabad. “Our two sides should focus on carrying out priority projects in connectivity, energy development and power generation and promoting the building of a China-Pakistan economic corridor.”

Facilitating development of such a corridor, Pakistan in February handed over operational control of its Gwadar port to China. Gwadar, in Balochistan province, is a deep-water seaport on Pakistan’s southwest coast that could serve as a vital economic hub for Beijing. The Arabian Sea port occupies a strategic location between South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East. It lies near the Strait of Hormuz, gateway for about 20% of the world’s oil. Development of Gwadar as hub port in the region will form part of the Pakistan-China economic, energy and trade corridor.

Local analysts however point out that security is the key issue hampering the development of a Pakistan-China trade corridor, as terrorist attacks in China’s restive Xinjiang province on one hand and unrest in Balochistan province could upset any such scheme of things or efforts made for revival of regional trade corridor.

Balochistan and Xinjiang are both the largest, least developed, neglected and volatile but resource-rich provinces of the two countries. Restoration of peace and stability in Balochistan and Xinjiang is essential for any future plan to establish regional trade corridor or economic development of the region.

Friendship with China has been a cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy. The Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) of Nawaz Sharif won a resounding victory in the May 11 general election and is set to form the next government.

Sharif has to meet the challenge of reviving a flagging economy, and the country’s relationship with China is an important factor for economic growth. Last year, trade between the two countries for the first time crossed the US$12 billion mark and both sides are aiming to reach $15 billion in the next two or three years.

As Pakistan’s closest ally, China has previously risen to the country’s support in difficult times. Defense cooperation is a major aspect of what Pakistan and China call their “all-weather friendship”. In May 2011, China agreed to expedite the delivery of 50 fighter jets to Pakistan and to equip the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) with the latest FC 20 aircraft. PAF has a fleet of Chinese aircraft, including F-7PGs and A-5s, but also F-16s and French Mirages. The JF-17 “Thunder” program dates back to 1999 and is aimed at reducing Pakistan’s dependence on Western companies for advanced fighters.

Critics however say that the two-day trip by Li is only being made to avoid slapping Islamabad in the face completely, after Li made made his first trip abroad a three-day visit to India, in a key signal about the real shifts in Chinese foreign policy.

A critical view published in The Express Tribune said,

The truth is that China is much more serious about its economic relationship with India than with Pakistan. The Chinese premier will, at best, sign a few memoranda of understanding, essentially worthless pieces of paper that say nothing of substance. In India, the visit was marked by Chinese companies signing legally binding contracts with their Indian counterparts worth billions of dollars. China’s trade with India is worth $68 billion and the two countries are on track to take it to $100 billion in two years. The sooner Pakistan wakes up from the “China is our friend” delusion, the sooner we will stop giving control of the country’s economic resources for almost nothing in return. The harsh reality is that Pakistan means almost nothing to China, and that is why the relationship with Beijing has yielded almost no tangible benefits for the Pakistani economy.

It further said,

In the 12-year period between July 2000 and June 2012, net foreign investment in Pakistan amounted to about $29 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. Of that, just $0.8 billion came from China, and nearly all of that was China Mobile’s investment in Zong. China’s investment in Pakistan is less than that of tiny Netherlands, which invested $1.4 billion during that time. The supposed “Great Satan” – the United States – invested the most in Pakistan: $7.7 billion, or more than a quarter of all foreign investment in the country.

There is only one major Chinese company with actual investments in Pakistan: China Mobile. The number of major US companies investing in Pakistan? More than 30. In Pakistan’s terms of trade with China, the relationship is virtually colonial in nature. In 2012, China sold Pakistan about $6.6 billion worth of goods, mostly electronic equipment and machinery. Pakistan sold China about $2.6 billion worth of goods, nearly all of that cotton yarn. By contrast, Pakistan runs a trade surplus with both the United States and the European Union.

Spring Offensive and Tale of Talks
SOURCE: Daily Outlook Afghanistan
Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Several  policemen were killed in Sangin District of Helmand on Tuesday in yet another spring offensive of the Taliban. A group of about 1000 fighters trapped some police check posts and attacked capturing three of the posts. Later, calling reinforcements, forces from Afghan National Police and Afghan National Army drove off the militants and took back the check posts. Without calling for any aerial or ground support from the International Security Assistance Forces, ANP and ANA did well in quelling the Taliban militants, showing their capacity to fight.

The increasing Taliban attacks since last month show their intentions well about the so-called peace and reconciliation process that seems to be out of the lens these days. Nobody talks about the talks with Taliban.  What happened to Roadmap 2015 strategy drafts? The Government circles were beating drums of excitement, but it seems all have come to point zero.

It seems all the claims and meetings from Qatar to Kabul are not working to set a mechanism for talks, while the Government has been hush for past several weeks on the issue, since the Kabul-Islamabad swings. All that has remained for media consumption is the exchange of accusations.

On the other hand, Taliban have been quite clear and persistent with their agenda. They continue slaughtering innocent civilians in bloodbath.  There is not a single day when a civilian or member of the ANP or ANA is being killed. They claim to carry heavy attacks this summer and special suicide bombing units have been tasked for Kabul.

The Government’s incapacity and lack of a coherent counterinsurgency and anti-terrorism policy is taking us to an unknown direction of uncertainty among masses. How long will the Karzai Administration continue the policy of attempts to appease Taliban with criminal incapacity to protect lives of Afghan civilians?

Amid all this uncertain situation due to the incapacity of our leadership, the only hope remains with a smooth transfer of power in Kabul next year through a free, fair and transparent elections that should bring a new leadership with popular support and strong will to lead us out of the uncertainty whether it’s through talks with Taliban or a tough fight. The current administration lacks credibility and capacity for both. However, the current rulers are too stubborn to let the political transition happen smoothly. They are looking for crisis to create chaos and make space for their continued exploitation of the situation.

Beware of negotiating with the TTP
SOURCE: The Express Tribune
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
By Ejaz Haider

Nawaz Sharif, prime minister-to-be, wants to negotiate with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan(TTP). Let’s see how negotiations work and what this means. In other words, we shall not dismiss outright the idea of negotiating with the TTP but shall, nonetheless, put it to some test on the basis of the fundamentals of negotiation theory. Consider.

There are two broad frameworks for negotiation: distributive and integrative. The idea is simple. How is the pie to be divided? It is important to note that we are presupposing — as is always done in a negotiating process — that both or all parties have reached a point where they believe they can better advance their interests through talking rather than acting unilaterally. We also believe that there is, or can be found, a bargaining zone.

Please note that while we cannot dismiss the possibility of one or more sides entering into negotiations to buy time or using the process to regroup and gain strength, we are deliberately not factoring in that possibility in our hypothesis. In any case, if that were to happen the parties will be thrown back into conflict and the process of negotiation will come to an end.

Our hypothesis then can be put forward thus: the state (of Pakistan) and the TTP have decided that neither can defeat the other through unilateral action and, therefore, both must get down to talking. Also, that both sides will talk in good faith and not resort to strategies that could derail the process.

This essentially signals one thing clearly. Since the TTP comprises non-state actors, the state has already conceded that it has been unable to put it down. So, even if the TTP cannot defeat the state, the two sides come to the table with the state having accepted that it has lost its monopoly on violence. In other words, it has been deprived of one of its central traits.

Put another way, while the TTP may not have defeated the state, by not allowing the state to win, the TTP has dispossessed the state of its domination.

The next step will be distributive. Who will get what share of the pie? Because once the state concedes its inability to retain its monopoly on violence, it has to enter the process of give and take. And what it can take, in theory, must be less than what it possessed before the conflict began. For the non-state TTP, whatever it can get is a gain against the state.

It must, therefore, be clear to Mr Sharif, as also to those too eager to talk to the TTP, that negotiating with that entity without forcing it to seek peace unilaterally and then talking to it, means the two sides come to the table as equals. If the coming government is comfortable with that thought, we shall continue to the next stage.

Such negotiations cannot be integrative — i.e., the two sides cannot increase the size of the pie. They have to be distributive. What will the state bring to the table? We already know what the TTP’s demands are. They have been made abundantly clear and start by rejecting the very basis of the Pakistani state and its institutions. Is the state prepared to do that?

What is the nature of the terrain in the bargaining zone, accept if we do that such a zone in fact exists? Mr Sharif will have to figure out the space between the state’s minimum reservation point and the TTP’s maximum reservation point — and, vice versa.

The army chief says talks are possible if the TTP lays down arms and accepts the writ of the state. Unless he is rejecting the very idea of talks at this stage, which would be smart, this will not work. Why would the TTP accept the writ of the state when the latter’s desire to negotiate terms with the TTP means precisely that the state has lost its writ because it has been deprived of its monopoly on violence?

Essentially, this means that once the state, without bludgeoning the TTP and forcing it into talks, concedes that there is reason to talk to the TTP, it cannot dictate terms, even as it can put across its position.

The two positions, at the opening gambit, are incompatible. But wait. Can we focus on interests rather than positions, trying to figure out what it is that motivates the TTP? Perhaps. Let’s assume, against evidence, that the TTP doesn’t want to conquer Pakistan ideologically. That all it wants, before its cadres lay down their arms, is for Pakistan to change international course in the region. Can the state, under Mr Sharif’s watch, afford to do that, given that it bespeaks of international isolation and even possible conflict with the United States and its allies?

I doubt it. If anything, considering what Mr Sharif has been saying, he wants to integrate Pakistan into the world, not isolate it. And by the looks of it, the TTP is not prepared to accept even the state’s minimum reservation point, let alone the maximum.

I hear dissenting whispers about fighting our own people. This argument is bogus at worst; misplaced at best. The TTP’s agenda is to isolate Pakistan and to spread its exclusionary ideology. There are also more than sotto voce pronouncements about negotiating with the TTP because even America is talking to the Taliban. This not only shows a pathetic lack of understanding of the two situations but also indicates how little people generally know about the TTP and what it stands for. How it came into being; what groups comprise it, its agenda and how it gets funded. But we shall leave that for some other day.

No matter how one looks at it, one can’t find the bargaining space so essential for negotiations to succeed. In which case, would it not be instructive for Mr Sharif to not give voice to a course of action that he might not be able to take?

Afghan peace lost in transition worries
SOURCE: The Washington Post
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
By PAMELA CONSTABLE

Amid the scattered but steadily mounting carnage of the Taliban’s annual spring offensive, including a suicide bombing Monday that killed a provincial council head, hopes of stirring life into peace talks with the Islamist insurgents seem to be dying here with each new suicide attack, kidnapping and roadside bombing.

Even as this fragile nation of about 30 million holds its breath, fearing catastrophe could follow the presidential election and NATO troop pullout next year, both the Afghan government and its armed opponents seem to think that time is on their side. A once-acute feeling of urgency to end the war seems to have been overtaken by uneasy, tenuous maneuvering in a vast political fog.

“Everything in Afghanistan seems very ambiguous now,” said Abdul Hakim Mujahid, a former Taliban diplomat and a member of the government-appointed peace council. “There are a hundred questions to be answered, but nothing is clear, and we have no magic formula.”

Failure of initiatives

Just a few months ago, momentum seemed to be building for rapprochement. In December, Afghan officials, political opposition figures and Taliban leaders held private discussions in Paris. Several participants described the meetings as a breakthrough, yet no concrete actions or agreements emerged from them.

A planned Taliban office in Qatar, where the insurgents could meet with Afghan and foreign officials to talk about peace negotiations, did not get off the ground before the summer fighting season began this year. Although President Hamid Karzai, who had balked at the idea, finally reached agreement with Qatar in April, the Taliban — which has insisted that it will talk only with the Americans and not with Karzai — has expressed little recent interest in moving forward.

Talks between the Americans and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, ended early last year, and a tentative deal to exchange prisoners and implement other confidence-building measures fell apart. Those discussions have not resumed, according to Obama administration officials.

The common denominator that played a part in undoing both initiatives, observers said, was the deep hostility and mistrust between Taliban leaders and Karzai. The Taliban does not recognize the Kabul government as legitimate, calling it a Western-installed puppet. The group has demanded a new constitution and says it prefers to negotiate with a wide range of Afghans and foreign interlocutors.

“The Taliban say Karzai is the biggest obstacle to peace,” said Waheed Mojda, a political analyst and former Taliban ministry employee. “They discovered in Paris that they have a lot in common with some of his opponents, and they have the same questions everyone else does about 2014. Once Karzai is gone from power, they want to be in communication with other parties and movements.”

Aides to Karzai, however, said they are convinced that despite the more-moderate tone being adopted by Taliban leaders today, they remain ruthless extremists who want to forcibly turn Afghanistan into a pure Islamic state. Karzai, who shares ethnic and tribal roots with the Taliban, was once fond of calling the group’s members “brothers,” but his comments have taken a harsher, more exasperated tone of late.

“We need a just and enduring peace, not a quick deal with the Taliban,” said Ismael Qasimyar, a longtime Karzai aide and peace council member. “The Taliban talk about girls’ education and political pluralism now, but they think that after the NATO troops withdraw, they can conquer and rule us again. .?.?. We will never sacrifice a single Afghan’s rights just to get a settlement with the Taliban.”

Mounting concerns

Several other factors have contributed to deepening pessimism about prospects for peace. Most dramatic is a renewed surge in Taliban violence this spring, which has left hundreds of Afghan police officers, soldiers and civilians dead, along with 57 coalition troops, from March to May. The southern-based insurgents have staged small attacks and bombings across hundreds of miles and more than a dozen provinces.

In the latest attack, a suicide bombing killed 14 people Monday, including the provincial council head of Baghlan, a relatively peaceful and secure province in the northeast. The attacker approached the official, a known anti-Taliban figure, as he talked with a group outside his office in the city of Pul-i-Khumri. The Taliban swiftly asserted responsibility for the bombing.

NATO and Afghan officials point out that most attacks are still confined to a few small areas of the country and that the insurgents lack the capacity to confront Afghan and coalition troops, who far outnumber them. But the growing number of attacks on civilians this year has alarmed Afghans and international observers, and many express concern that Afghan troops will not be able to provide security in many regions during the election next year.

Another widely shared concern here is whether Pakistan, a powerful neighbor that many Afghans mistrust, will hinder the peace process and take advantage of a tumultuous transitional year to weaken the Kabul government. Afghan officials say Pakistan wields strong influence over the Taliban and is in no hurry to bring the group to the negotiating table.

Pakistan “does not want a strong Afghan government; it wants a slice of the cake of Afghan power,” Qasimyar said. “Pakistani officials repeatedly say they want peace and stability for Afghanistan, but Pakistan is a nursery and exporter for extremism. Taliban leaders living in Pakistan need to get out of there, so they will be free to think and be independent and engage in peace.”

Beyond any single source of worry, though, analysts and officials here said the broad questions associated with the upcoming transition seem to have overwhelmed the narrower demands and conditions for peace. Who will govern the country? Will the defense forces hold together or disintegrate into ethnic factions? Will the war economy collapse? Will the neighbors interfere? Will any Americans stay beyond 2014, and what will be the function of those troops?

“For everyone, 2014 is the big nightmare,” Mujahid said. “There is a great gap between the people and the government, but I see little chance for a legitimate election that will bring stability. As long as the future is not clear, I think there is nothing we can do for peace.”

Poisoned chalice
SOURCE: The News International
Monday, May 20, 2013
By CHRIS CORK

No wonder Nawaz Sharif was happy to see the PTI of Imran Khan take Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – he knows that it holds the seeds of Khan’s undoing. Every imaginable challenge in governance is present in KP and the PTI brings to the task a team which although has seasoned players, is very much made up of newcomers to the political arena – and there is no kindergarten in politics where one is gently introduced to the hurly-burly. It is a dive into the deep end, never mind that you may not have learned to swim in shallower waters first, and that is where the PTI is going to have to hope that its learning curve is a lot steeper than that evidenced in the days immediately post-poll.

The PTI does not have enough seats to single-handedly form the official opposition in parliament, and its leader has opted to take the constituency in Rawalpindi where he lives, rather than in the province his party won – a decision that might get a decidedly slitty-eyed look from his fellow Pakhtuns.

Still in a hospital bed but making a good recovery as these words are written, IK has spoken of creating a ‘model province’ in KP, and of working with Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N ‘in the national interest’. Unfortunately, the material he has to work with in his newly-won province is not the most malleable when it comes to model-making.

The poison in the chalice is that the PTI has won too many seats in KP to avoid forming its next government, and it is going to be a ‘make or break’ deal.

Large parts of KP are ungoverned or governed thinly. The rule of law is present in the breach rather than the observance across much of the province. The ANP, the ‘natural’ party of governance, has just been electorally annihilated and won no seats at all in KP. The PTI has some large boots to fill, and baby feet politically.

Imran Khan said that if he became prime minister he would order the shooting down of the drones that strike in KP. He is not going to be PM and it is unlikely that Nawaz Sharif, chilly pragmatist that he is, is going to order up a squadron of F-16s to knock the Reapers out of the sky. The drone strikes are fewer now and will diminish further up to and beyond 2014. Problem solved. Sort of.

Ah….2014. Nobody is expecting or predicting that Afghanistan is going to be enveloped in sweetness and light once foreign forces depart, and civil war is widely expected. Will that war spill over the Durand Line? Inevitably. And you propose dealing with this how, IK? Understood that any military decisions are going to be federal rather than provincial but it is literally on the doorstep. So, a position paper please. And no waffling.

Then there is that pesky teenager currently getting educated in Birmingham, UK, and walking around with a titanium plate where part of her skull used to be. Malala Yousufzai may be a Nobel prizewinner by the end of this year, and will be issuing clarion calls for the universality of female education – even if she does not win it. At which point the world’s media gaze will swing to KP, its governance and questions about what has been done to ensure just that – universal education for girls.

Supplementary questions may also be asked about why it was that the PTI joined hands with other parties in order to deny the vote for women in the election that the PTI has just profited so handsomely from. The women of Upper and Lower Dir would be interested to get a visit from IK once he is up and about in order that he might explain why his party disenfranchised them.

Health has its pitfalls as well. Polio immunisation and the administration of the MMR vaccine (measles, mumps, rubella) is widely resisted in Fata, often at the insistence of local religious leaders who see the whole business of immunisation as part of some ghastly western plot to limit Muslim fertility. Currently the World Health Organisation (WHO) is mulling a travel ban on all Pakistanis because of the failure to eradicate polio, one result of which would be a ban on travel for Haj. Unlikely to be a vote winner in pious KP.

The eradication of polio and the control of measles are entirely within our grasp, but it requires leadership and determination at the highest level. And statesmanship. Thus far we have some fine sloganeering from IK but little evidence of statesmanship.

Which brings us to the small matter of ‘give and take’. Effective governance is about balance, and a listening ear, and a willingness to seek middle ground, a space less conflicted. But some battles have to be fought head-on, corruption for one, and if the PTI is going to eradicate or even make a dent in corruption in every walk of life in KP, then they will be challenging centuries of tradition and a normative structure rooted in the deviant rather than the compliant. Only time is going to tell us if the new boys in KP are up to the task, and be sure that Nawaz Sharif will be watching, all smiles, from the sidelines.

Imran Khan and the PTI have brought difference to the political landscape but they have not yet brought change. The election has for now consolidated the status quo, with elective feudalism and dynastic politics the big winners in Punjab and Sindh.

Change is latent but not imminent. Much is going to depend on how well or ill the PTI government tackles and mitigates the many problems that beset KP, some of them truly intractable. If, and it is a very big if, the PTI can hit the ground running in an environment fraught with difficulty and make it through the maze as well as holding together in the federal parliament, then it will have created the mandate for change that can be with confidence voted for in the next election. Best of luck, ladies and gentlemen, and careful of the contents of any cup you might be offered a drink from.

Afghan President Seeks Indian Military Aid Amid Pakistan Row
SOURCE: Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Sunday, May 19, 2013

President Hamid Karzai is due to open a trip to India during which he is expected to seek more Indian assistance for Afghanistan’s armed forces.

The three-day trip comes amid tensions between Afghanistan and its neighbor Pakistan, which has had hostile relations with India for decades.

Afghanistan and Pakistan have accused each other of firing across their mutual border, and Afghanistan said an Afghan police officer was killed in a skirmish earlier this month.

Both sides also accuse each other of sheltering militants who launch cross-border attacks.

Pakistan’s government suspects India of trying to weaken Pakistan by surrounding it with hostile forces, including in Afghanistan, and for years has sought to prevent the development of a strong India-Afghan alliance.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since they were divided into two countries when they achieved independence from Britain in 1947.

Afghan presidential spokesman Aimal Faizi said Karzai’s delegation intended to ask India to help Afghanistan address its military needs and shortages.

Details were not immediately available on what kind of weapons and assistance India is prepared to provide Afghanistan.

Karzai’s trip comes amid intensifying jockeying for influence in Afghanistan as foreign combat troops prepare to withdraw from the country by the end of 2014.

It also follows a new pledge from Nawaz Sharif, the incoming Pakistani prime minister, to improve Islamabad’s relations with India.

The Afghan spokesman said Karzai planned to discuss in New Delhi the rise in tensions on the Durand Line, colonial-era border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Ahead of Karzai’s talks, the “Times of India” newspaper reported that Afghanistan’s ambassador to India said the country needs India’s help with “equipment and weapons to fight.”

The Press Trust of India later quoted a spokesman for the Indian Foreign Ministry as saying New Delhi is ready to fulfill such requests.

Afghanistan and India signed a strategic partnership agreement in 2011 that has included Indian military training of Afghan security forces.

Economic issues are also expected during the Afghan-Indian discussions. Reports say India has more than $2 billion invested in Afghan infrastructure projects.

An Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Syed Akbaruddin, acknowledged that “political and security issues” continue to hamper efforts to develop the Afghan economy.

Afghanistan has repeatedly suggested that Pakistan has hindered efforts toward peace talks involving the Afghan Taliban and other factions.

Many Afghan Taliban leaders have found shelter in Pakistan. Pakistan backed the Afghan Taliban before reversing its stand under pressure from Washington during the U.S.-led intervention which toppled the Taliban regime in late 2001.

Karzai, who earned a university degree in India, most recently visited New Delhi in November 2012.

Politics in Pakistan’s biggest city. A killing in Karachi
SOURCE: The Economist
Sunday, May 19, 2013

THE police in Karachi say they still have an open mind about the murder, late on May 18th, of Zohra Shahid Hussain, a senior politician with the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), or Movement for Justice. The three young men on a motorcycle who attacked her outside her home may have been robbers, they say. Her party colleagues, however, are in no doubt that she fell victim to a political assassination. She died on the eve of a partial rerun in one Karachi constituency of the general election held on May 11th.

PTI’s leader, Imran Khan, a charismatic former captain of the national cricket team, wasquick to blame Altaf Hussain, the exiled leader of Karachi’s dominant political party, the Muttahida Qaumi Mahaz, or MQM, as “directly responsible” for the murder. The MQM was equally quick to deny the charge, accusing Mr Khan of “immaturity” and threatening to sue him for defamation.

Karachi has a terrible record of violence, much of it political. Eleven people were killed on May 18th alone. Political parties have close links to gangsters, and the city is also home to extremists from the Pakistani Taliban and other groups with terrorist tendencies. The MQM is both the best-organised of the city’s political parties, and, as the one in power, seen as the best able to bully and intimidate its rivals. “It is a fascist party,” says Arif Alvi, the PTI’s candidate in the contested constituency.

Against this background, Mr Khan accused Mr Hussain of openly threatening PTI workers through public broadcasts. Police in Britain are investigating Mr Hussain after receivinghundreds of complaints about a speech he made on May 12th, which the PTI took to be inciting violence against its workers. The MQM insists its leader’s words were taken out of context and misinterpreted.

On the ground in Karachi, Mr Alvi is also convinced his colleague was killed by political rivals. She died of two bullets through the head, shot from under the chin. He says that, overnight, the noise of guns fired into the air could be heard through much of the constituency. He likens this to an MQM tactic used in advance of the strikes it sometimes calls—violence the previous evening intimidates people into observing its orders.

In one part of the constituency, Hijrat Colony, an area of tumbledown shacks and cramped breeze-block houses, residents say men on motorcycles had driven round on the eve of the poll, telling people not to vote in the morning. The MQM boycotted the re-poll, demanding fresh voting in all of the constituency’s polling stations, not just the 43 designated by the Election Commission (EC), after allegations of vote-rigging and of EC incompetence in failing to provide the polling stations with ballot papers and voters’ lists.

The boycott was also observed by the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which, despite being trounced in the national election, remains the main party in the province of Sindh of which Karachi is part; and by Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamic party which was contesting it under a seat-sharing arrangement with the Pakistan Muslim League (N), the PML-N, which triumphed nationally.

The MQM has dominated politics in Karachi for three decades. It was formed to represent the interests of the Mohajirs—Urdu-speaking migrants who came to the city after partition from India in 1947. The city has expanded enormously—to a population of an estimated 18m today. The MQM has maintained its supremacy despite challenges from the PPP, which represents mainly the Sindhis, and the Awami National Party (ANP), representing the many ethnic Pushtuns who have moved to the city in recent years.

But on May 11th, the PTI emerged as the main opposition, the runner-up in 15 of 17 seats declared. Some of this was achieved by mobilising the so-called “burger class”, the well-educated elite that has hitherto tended to shun politics, and is now, nationwide, a leading force in what Mr Khan calls a “tsunami” started by the PTI. In a posh school used as a polling station in Karachi’s Defence Housing Authority, many well-dressed middle-aged residents were voting for the first time.

In Hijrat and elsewhere, however, the PTI is clearly also eating into the MQM’s support. Overall the MQM’s share of the vote in Karachi on May 11th fell from 72% in the previous election in 2008 to 61% now. If the MQM did intend to intimidate voters ahead of the voting, it seems to have some success. Most polling stations reported low turnout, and PTI voters (the only ones to be found) said that others had been scared to come, despite the heavy presence of soldiers, policemen and paramilitary rangers at all the polling stations.

In the nation’s capital, Islamabad, officials and foreign diplomats alike see the election on May 11th as having been the most successful, in terms of the credibility of the process, in Pakistan’s history. The result, giving the PML-N the chance to lead a strong central government, has also been welcomed. And the PTI’s surge—coming from nowhere to challenge the PPP as the main national opposition—has been seen as a big factor in the high turnout in most parts of the country.

Karachi, however, presents the incoming government with one of its biggest problems. The MQM, an influential player in most previous federal coalitions, is now out of government in Islamabad, and facing what Mr Alvi says is the biggest challenge left to its dominance of Karachi. It still, however, has its coercive power, and the fanatical loyalty Mr Hussain commands among many of the MQM’s foot-soldiers.

It also has the power to embarrass Britain, for Mr Hussain is a British citizen. Mr Khan has already said he also holds the British government responsible for Ms Hussain’s murder.

Sino-Pak alliance: Naval and nuclear cooperation
SOURCE: Observer Research Foundation
By C RAJA MOHAN
Saturday, May 18, 2013

The unrealistic expectations in India from Li Keqiang’s visit to Delhi and Mumbai next week are likely to be tempered when weighed against the Chinese premier’s agenda in Pakistan. Li flies from India to Pakistan and from there to Switzerland and Germany.

Sections of India’s foreign policy establishment have long cultivated the illusion that improved relations with China might result in a more balanced approach in Beijing towards Delhi and Islamabad.

News reports from Pakistan say Li is likely to sign an accord on further development of the Gwadar port on the Balochistan coast. Li’s talks are also likely to focus on civilian nuclear cooperation, the reports say.

Official media reports from Beijing do not mention either agreement, but simply reaffirm China’s commitment to deepen the strategic partnership with Pakistan. Naval and nuclear cooperation between the two countries has a long history and Delhi must expect them to advance in the coming years.

Together the two areas underline the enduring tension that China’s alliance with Pakistan generates for Sino-Indian relations. This can’t be papered over by the usual rhetoric in Delhi and Beijing about their shared global interests.

Pakistan has recently transferred the operational control over the Gwadar port, which was constructed with Beijing’s assistance, from Singaporean firm to a Chinese one. While the Gwadar port can’t serve as a naval base at this moment, Delhi’s military planners must necessarily assume such an option exists for Beijing in the future.

That premise is realistic, since China’s stakes in the Indian Ocean are growing rapidly. Meanwhile Chinese naval arms transfers to Pakistan have acquired a new intensity and are creating a basis for interoperability between the two navies.

More immediately, India is faced with a nuclear problem that it cannot really ignore. It is about Beijing’s opposition to India’s integration with the global nuclear order and China’s determination to ensure Pakistan’s nuclear parity with India.

History reminds us that without China’s support, Pakistan could not have easily become a nuclear weapon power. Even as Delhi reconciled to that fact, it had to confront Chinese resistance to the historic U.S. initiative to end India’s nuclear isolation during 2005-08.

Since then, Beijing, in violation of international rules, has agreed to supply civilian nuclear reactors to Pakistan. Islamabad is now pressing Beijing to convert the one time sale into a formal agreement for civil nuclear cooperation.

If this is not bad enough, Beijing has been opposing the U.S. effort to promote India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, an international forum that sets the rules for global nuclear commerce.

In his public remarks during his recent visit to China, the External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid ducked the questions on Beijing’s nuclear tilt against India. In his talks with Li on Monday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh needs to make it clear that China’s current nuclear policy towards India is hostile and unacceptable.

The landmark elections 2013
SOURCE: Pakistan Observer
Friday, May 17, 2013
By MIRZA ASLAM BEG

The verdict of 11th May 2013, by the Pakistani voters, has demolished several myths, establishing new realities which promise a brighter future for Pakistan, emerging from the depths of sorrow and sacrifices of decades and the sufferings at the hands of a corrupt and incompetent government, which almost shook the very foundation of the country. The myth that the Pakistani nation, with forty-five percent illiterates cannot nurture democracy, has been shattered, by our voters, who in a matter of ten hours of day light, have rejected most of the corrupt and the incompetent, thus correcting the course of democracy.

The 11th May 2013 verdict, in fact is the affirmation of the 1947 declaration of the Pakistan Movement, that: “Pakistan will be a democratic state, with a just social order based on the principles of Islam”. The nation has rejected secularism, religious extremism and ‘isms’ of all kind. It has voted for Moderation as in 1947, expressing the ‘true will’ of the Pakistani nation. It is a matter of record, that whenever the Pakistani nation has been afforded fair and free elections, it has voted only for the moderates, which is the fundamental truth, lying at the heart of its democratic ethos. Our national institutions, namely the Army and the Judiciary have mainly been responsible for the derailment of democracy in the past. Now they stood wholeheartedly to determine the right course for the democratic order and have defeated all machinations and manipulations to sabotage the election process, thus safeguarding the nation from the catastrophe which struck Indonesia, some half a century back, where a bloody revolution took place, resulting into more than a million dead, and the Islamic order was ultimately established over the alien ideology. This happened because the elections could not be held in Indonesia for a peaceful transition, whereas elections have helped Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan, to find peace and stability.

The new set-up will soon take-up the reigns of the government, to face the challenges, with the support of the broad masses who inherit the “democratic consciousness and true vision of Pakistan”. And I may not be wrong in saying that the new leadership also has the ‘fear of God’ in their hearts which makes them taller than those who came before them.

It is rather pathetic to see PPP and ANP rejected by the voters. ANP melted away conceding space to PTI which has emerged as the majority in KPK. The PPP, battered and bruised, has receded to its base in interior Sindh, while MQM, as usual rules urban Sindh, forcing a coalition government for the sake of political harmony. Surprisingly Imran Khan targeted Punjab, but hit the ‘bull’ in KPK province. (A bad shot indeed). It is hoped he will now be allowed to form the government in KPK so that his leadership is tested in dealing with the problems of this most turbulent region of Pakistan. Our border areas with Afghanistan are the hub of the Islamic Resistance, which has defeated the Soviets and the Americans and their allies. From here also rises the resistance against Pakistan. Such is the muddle Imran Khan has to wade through. Sagacity demands that Nawaz Sharif should help him to deal with such daunting problems, to bring peace in Pakistan. The PPP and ANP have learned the bitter lesson that while in power they could not take the masses for granted, who have taken the revenge for the betrayal. The PPP and ANP must therefore suffer this verdict of history, rightly called the ‘Revenge of Democracy’.

The economy of the country is in serious jeopardy, yet one must have confidence in the resilience of the nation to fight back, the way our agriculturists and the industrialists have fought the curse of energy crisis maintaining the export level of about US$ 30 million. Our overseas Pakistanis now remit over 15 billion US$ a year, lessening the debt burden liabilities. And amazingly ourStock Exchange has been buoyant for several months, with index crossing the figure of 20,000, despite all the bad news. It appears that our businessmen and the investors perhaps knew about the new face of politics to emerge in Pakistan. The curse of terrorism will gradually fade away with the withdrawal of the occupation forces in Afghanistan, who also have a stake in Pakistan. We have to be careful in being part of the “strategic cooperation to defeat terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan” Mr. Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan and Maulana Fazlur Rahman are on the same page on the issue of dealing with the threat of terrorism, as declared by the All Parties Conference on 28th February 2013 and subsequently endorsed by Parliament.

Nawaz Sharif seems to be in great hurry to improve relation with India and find solution to the Kashmir problem. No doubt this is an important matter, but must be seen in the context of changed geo-political realities of the 21st century — particularly the ‘Shift of the Strategic Pivot’ to Asia Pacific; withdrawal of occupation forces from Afghanistan; merging Russo-Chinese interests in the region; Indian hegemonic ambitions of regional primacy and the surge of Muslim Consciousness’ and its impact on Pakistan. The important issues of rivers water, Gwadar and Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline, demand a very careful approach. The new regime under Nawaz Sharif, no doubt would face many challenges, but the ideal conditions provided by the verdict of 11th May 2013 provides opportunities, to rise to the occasion, to justify the trust reposed in them by the nation.

Imran begins Test of his life
SOURCE: The Frontier Post
Friday, May 17, 2013
By MUZAFFAR BUTT

For the first time, relatively inexperienced Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) is going to make its debut in the political arena after winning majority seats in the Kyber Pakhtunkhawa. The PTI seems all set to form its government with the help of the Jamaat Islami in the restive province. Winning elections in the war-torn KPK was a herculean task that the PTI accomplished with ease and style but the greater challenge of facing reckless and deadly TTP men awaits the PTI led government.

To meet the lingering threats of suicide bombings, the PML-N chief and the Prime-Minister-in-the-waiting Nawaz Sharif has sought the cooperation of the PTI chief in a move that was widely reckoned as a need of the hour.

A day after the meeting, the PTI chief, from his hospital bed, vowed to cooperate with incoming Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on terrorism and other major challenges following key elections, saying ‘We have decided that despite severe differences that we have, we will work together to resolve major national problems including terrorism’. Notwithstanding injuries and disabilities caused to millions of the people, for last one decade or so, the thousand of innocent people have lost their lives in the suicide bombings, cross firing and shelling from friends and foes alike. The Star fast bowler of yesteryears Imran Khan is, though, relatively naive and inexperienced in politics yet, he is coming to terms with a maturity of a seasoned politicians, leaving aside the subtleness he is known for.

In pure cricketing terms, his line & length and the comprehension of the state of affairs with regards to challenges the country is facing are impeccable. Hence he aspires all the stake-holders including politicians and the military top brass to sit down together to hammer out a solution to domestic terrorism which is only way the nation can move forward to live in peace attaining much wanted prosperity.

The PTI, making another dent in the PML-N ranks, posted another win in PP-7 against Chaudhry Nisar Ali khan after a recount in six polling stations. Indeed, the PTI added another feather to it caps. However, the testing time for the party will start once the PTI puts its coalition government in place in the KPK’s capital Peshawar. Imran Khan, despite being a non-Pushto speaking leader, has already sprung surprise in the election results. Can he spell his magic in dealing with Pushto-speaking masses who had voted him to power? Driven under his idealism, Imran Khan seems all set to offer olive branch to the warring TTP men. The idea is not bad either but unpredictability of the TTP has always impeded the reconciliation process.

Living memories offer enough evidence that the peace agreements between the TPP and the government of Pakistan have fallen flat to the volatile nature of the TTP men. Yet nothing should deter Imran Khan from making another bid for the peace in the region. He must put his right foot forward after mustering confidence of all concerned. He, however, should strictly adhere to local traditions and aspirations of the local people.

First thing first according to local traditions of Jirga, Imran Khan should invite Taliban to come to the negotiation table free of guns and ammunition, and during the meeting, the warring parties will hold a truce and release all the innocent people held hostage by the militants as a confidence building measure. This is not a demand rather a local tradition that the people of the region observe when they make any reconciliation move with a purpose. Afghan Taliban have been released by Pakistan to kick start the Afghan peace process in Qatar.

The same precedent should be applied to the peace process in Pakistan. Imran Khan has to woo back misguided Pakistani Taliban with his personal skills of communication and wisdom under the writ of the state. The public sentiments are running high, making a gigantic task to fulfill its election promises more difficult for the PTI particularly when it comes face to face with the reckless and corrupt bureaucracy of the province.

But the youth frenzy that drove the PTI to the victory in the general elections can rein in the bureaucracy as well yet the PTI can only deliver if it works as a team taking all stakeholders along. In the meantime, the PTI chief Imran Khan has rightly reciprocated the offer for cooperation with the PML-N Nawaz Sharif, before he starts the Test of his life.